Survival Analysis Shows How Trade Agreements Affect Indian Export Survival
Trade agreements help Indian firms enter new markets. However, many exports stop after a short time. Researchers use survival analysis to study how Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) influence the duration of Indian exports.
Survival analysis tracks export relationships over time. This method measures how long a product continues to be exported to a specific country. It also identifies factors that cause exports to fail or survive longer. Economists apply models like Cox proportional hazard and Kaplan-Meier estimator for this purpose.
India has signed several FTAs in recent years. These agreements reduce tariffs and trade barriers with partner countries. As a result, Indian exporters gain better market access. Survival analysis reveals whether these agreements actually help exports last longer.
Studies show positive effects. Indian exports survive longer after FTA implementation. Lower tariffs and improved rules of origin reduce costs. Moreover, they help firms build stable buyer relationships. Consequently, the risk of export failure decreases significantly in partner countries.
However, results vary across sectors. Some industries like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and engineering goods benefit strongly. In contrast, agricultural products sometimes show mixed outcomes due to non-tariff barriers and quality standards.
Researchers control for many factors. They account for firm size, product quality, exchange rate volatility, and global demand shocks. This careful analysis isolates the true impact of FTAs on export survival.
The findings carry important policy implications. Policymakers can design better FTAs by focusing on sectors with high potential. They can also support small exporters through training and finance to improve survival rates. As a result, India can achieve more sustainable export growth.
In summary, survival analysis provides clear evidence that trade agreements strengthen Indian export durability. Indian exporters who utilise FTAs effectively maintain longer and more profitable relationships in global markets. This modern analytical approach helps India make smarter trade policies for future economic growth.